Predicting the factors which significantly predict the presence of elephants

Abstract

Predicting the factors which determine the probability of elephant presence is critical in land use planning. Such information enables stakeholders to integrate development issues with elephant conservation concerns. This study tested the factors which significantly predict the probability of elephant presence in the resettlement areas of Kalala, Don Rovin and Mubiya near Victoria Falls Airport. To achieve this, elephant presence or absence data and land use were collected using a GPS Garmin. The Logistic Regression function in SPSS was used to test whether there is a significant relationship between human land uses and elephant presence/absence. Results indicate that the probability of elephant presence could be predicted significantly with distance from human settlement and agriculture. These results imply that relevant stakeholders need to take cognisance of the position of settlements and agricultural fields when planning. Such an approach is critical as it can act as a long term solution to the problem of human-elephant conflict.