Modeling of the vulnerability of "biomass energy" sub-sector to climate change in Togo.
Keywords:
scenario, fuelwood demand, fuelwood potential, vulnerability, TogoAbstract
Biomassenergy accounts for 80 % of total energy consumed in Togo. But its potentialdecreases exponentially as a result of population growth and the fact that thetechniques of production and consumption are still archaic and climate change.The aim of this work is to contribute to the assessment of vulnerability andadaptation to climate change in the sub-sector of biomass energy in Togo by amodeling approach. Specifically, it is i) to study the evolution of thehousehold demand for fuelwood and ii ) to analyze the vulnerability to climatechange of sub-sector of biomass energy (mainly charcoal and firewood) in Togo.Demand scenarios of fuelwood were developed from the LEAP model. Thevulnerability analysis is made by coupling the demands and the potential of fuelwoodand by taking into account the parameters of climate change. At the end of thisstudy, it appears that the fuelwood demands evolve exponentially and that the sectoris vulnerable to future climate change. In addition, the potential of fuelwoodis very deficient compared to the demand for years to come and will beexhausted before the year 2025. The current energy and forestry policies arefar from fill this gap.References
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